Energy price cap 2027: forecasts for every quarter, and whether bills will fall
One page for the whole of 2027: each quarter’s status, the published forecast where one exists, when Ofgem announces it, and what a household can usefully do in the meantime.
- Confirmed caps and dated forecasts, quarter by quarter, with sources
- The announcement calendar for January, April, July and October 2027
- A straight answer to “will energy prices go down in 2027?”
For UK households. Forecasts are attributed and dated; only Ofgem sets the cap.
Compare whole-of-market home energy tariffs (gas & electricity)
If you’re watching price cap headlines and wondering whether to stay put or switch, a comparison is the fastest way to see what’s actually available for your home right now. The Ofgem price cap can move each quarter, but fixed and variable tariffs can differ significantly depending on your region, meter type, and usage.
Use the form to request a tailored comparison from EnergyPlus.co.uk. We’ll use your details to match you with suitable household tariffs across the market, including fixed-rate options, variable options, and greener plans where available.
Quick clarity: price cap vs your actual bill
- The cap limits unit rates and standing charges for standard variable/default tariffs (not a cap on total spend).
- Your bill still depends on how much energy you use and your meter type (credit, prepayment, Economy 7, smart meter, etc.).
- Fixed deals can sit above or below the capped rate, and won’t necessarily change when the cap changes.
Useful to have (optional)
- Your latest bill (annual kWh, or monthly Direct Debit)
- Whether you have a smart meter or prepayment meter
- If your home is all-electric (no gas)
Important: This page shares UK home energy price cap news and a forward-looking discussion for 2027. It is not financial advice. For official cap announcements and methodology, always refer to Ofgem.
Will energy prices go down in 2027?
Not at the start of the year, on current forecasts. The cap rises to £1,723 on 1 October 2026, and the only published forecast for 2027 — Cornwall Insight’s, from 26 August — has it rising again to £1,872 for January–March, a 9% increase driven mostly by gas. Beyond March, nobody has published a figure yet.
For bills to fall later in 2027, wholesale gas prices would need to ease through the winter, because each cap is set from the market prices in the months before it is announced. Two things work against a fall: the October level already takes a typical bill to its highest for three years, with the rise led by gas costs, and the zero rate of VAT on electricity only runs to 31 March 2027, so unless it is extended, 5% VAT returns to electricity from April.
What is confirmed
£1,663 to 30 September 2026, then £1,723 from 1 October (Ofgem, 26 August 2026).
What is forecast
£1,872 for January–March 2027 (Cornwall Insight, 26 August 2026). Nothing published for April onwards.
Who is unaffected
Around 35% of households on fixed deals keep their prices until the fix ends.
2027 price cap, quarter by quarter
Ofgem sets the cap for three months at a time and publishes each level about five weeks before it starts. Figures are for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit on Ofgem’s current typical-consumption values.
| Cap period | Typical annual bill (dual fuel, Direct Debit) | Status | Ofgem announcement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul – 30 Sep 2026 | £1,663 | Confirmed, in force | 27 May 2026 |
| 1 Oct – 31 Dec 2026 | £1,723 (+£60, +4%) | Confirmed | 26 August 2026 |
| 1 Jan – 31 Mar 2027 | £1,872 forecast (+£149, +9%) | Forecast — Cornwall Insight, 26 Aug 2026 | Expected late November 2026 |
| 1 Apr – 30 Jun 2027 | No published forecast | Not yet set | Expected late February 2027 |
| 1 Jul – 30 Sep 2027 | No published forecast | Not yet set | Expected late May 2027 |
| 1 Oct – 31 Dec 2027 | No published forecast | Not yet set | Expected late August 2027 |
January–March 2027: forecast £1,872, confirmed in late November
Cornwall Insight’s forecast is £1,872 a year, £149 above October’s cap. Their forecast rates are 28.33p per kWh and 55p a day for electricity, and 8.94p per kWh and 31p a day for gas, with electricity still VAT-free. Ofgem publishes the actual January–March level in late November 2026. Our January 2027 price cap guide has the worked bills, the fix-or-wait table and what could still move the number.
April–June 2027: announced in late February, no forecast yet
The April cap will be built from wholesale prices over roughly November 2026 to February 2027, so it depends on how the winter goes for gas markets. There is one known change to watch: the zero rate of VAT on domestic electricity was introduced for 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, so from 1 April 2027 electricity would carry 5% VAT again unless the Government extends the measure. In past years the spring cap has moved with the winter’s wholesale prices, sometimes down and sometimes up; it is not something to plan a budget around until Ofgem announces it.
July–September 2027: announced in late May
No forecast has been published. Summer caps are set from spring wholesale prices, when demand is lower, and heating use is lowest, so a summer quarter matters less to most bills than the winter ones on either side of it. If you are on a fixed deal ending in mid-2027, the late-May announcement is your cue to compare.
October–December 2027: announced in late August
This is the “winter 2027” question, and it is a year away from having a figure. The cap will reflect wholesale prices over the summer of 2027, network and policy costs set for that year, and whatever the VAT position is by then. We will add the first forecasts as they are published and the confirmed level in late August 2027.
How the Ofgem price cap works (households)
The Ofgem energy price cap limits what suppliers can charge customers on standard variable tariffs (SVTs) and default tariffs, expressed through maximum unit rates (pence per kWh) and standing charges (pence per day). It is designed to protect customers who haven’t switched to a fixed deal.
What the cap covers
- Unit rate and standing charge limits for capped tariffs
- Separate cap levels can apply by region and meter type
- Both electricity and gas pricing components
What the cap doesn’t cover
- Your total bill (usage still matters)
- Most fixed tariffs (these have their own price terms)
- Non-domestic/business energy contracts
Why the cap keeps changing through 2027
Cap updates typically reflect a mix of wholesale energy costs, network charges, policy costs, operating costs, and supplier margins. Over a multi-year horizon, even small changes in these inputs can move the cap—so forecasts for 2027 are best treated as scenario-based rather than a single “will be” number.
Tip: If you’re on an SVT/default tariff, you’re more exposed to price cap movements. If you fix, you trade some flexibility for price certainty (until the fix ends).
What you can do now
Whether you expect bills to fall or rise over the next few years, the best approach is to reduce avoidable risk. These practical steps can help you get more control over your household energy costs—without needing to predict the cap perfectly.
- Check your current tariff: Are you on a fixed tariff, SVT, or a default tariff after a fix ended? Note the end date and any exit fees.
- Find your usage: Look for annual electricity and gas usage in kWh (or your latest 12 months). Usage-based comparisons are more accurate than headline averages.
- Compare like-for-like: Make sure you compare the right meter type (credit vs prepay, Economy 7 where relevant) and your payment method.
- Decide your risk preference: Fixing can help with budgeting; staying variable can benefit if cap levels fall—each has trade-offs.
- Reduce consumption: Insulation, draught-proofing, boiler servicing, heating controls, and sensible thermostat settings can make a material difference over time.
- Re-check at key moments: When Ofgem announces a new cap period, when your fix is due to end, and after any big life change (moving home, new baby, working from home, etc.).
If you’re on a prepayment meter
Prepay pricing can differ from credit meters. Comparing with your correct meter type matters. If your circumstances have changed, you may also want to check eligibility for support schemes and whether switching meter type is possible for you.
If your home is all-electric
All-electric homes can be more sensitive to electricity unit rates. It’s especially important to compare electricity-only tariffs and consider how heating and hot water usage patterns affect your kWh.
Regional considerations (why your postcode matters)
Energy pricing isn’t identical across the UK. Even under the price cap framework, the capped standing charge and unit rates can vary by region, and suppliers can price fixed deals differently depending on local network costs and competition.
Different standing charges
Standing charges can vary depending on your distribution region, impacting low-usage and high-usage households differently.
Meter type differences
Economy 7/other time-of-use meters and prepay meters can have different price structures and availability of tariffs.
Supplier availability
Some deals are limited by region, tariff type, or customer circumstances. Comparing with your postcode avoids wasted time.
Common mistakes when following price cap forecasts
If you’re researching “UK energy price cap forecast 2027”, it’s easy to make decisions based on the wrong assumptions. Avoid these pitfalls to keep your options open.
Assuming the cap limits your total bill
Your annual cost is still driven by your household usage. A warmer winter, better insulation, or different work-from-home patterns can change your bill more than a small cap adjustment.
Waiting for “the perfect time”
If your fix is ending, doing nothing can push you onto a default tariff. Comparing gives you options—whether you switch now or set a reminder for renewal.
Comparing using the wrong details
Incorrect postcode, wrong meter type, or missing gas supply details can lead to misleading outcomes. Your comparison should match your home setup.
Ignoring standing charges
Some people focus only on unit rates. Standing charges can be a meaningful part of annual costs—especially for smaller households and low usage.
FAQs: the energy price cap in 2027
Will energy prices go down in 2027?
Not at the start of the year, on current forecasts. Cornwall Insight expects the January–March 2027 cap to rise 9% to £1,872. No forecaster has published figures for April 2027 onwards yet; whether the cap eases later in the year depends mainly on wholesale gas prices over the winter and on whether the zero rate of VAT on electricity is extended beyond March.
What is the energy price cap forecast for 2027?
Only one quarter has a published forecast: £1,872 a year for January–March 2027 (Cornwall Insight, 26 August 2026), against the confirmed £1,723 for October–December 2026. April–June, July–September and October–December 2027 have no published forecast yet.
When are the 2027 price caps announced?
Ofgem publishes each cap about five weeks before it starts: late November 2026 for January–March, late February 2027 for April–June, late May 2027 for July–September and late August 2027 for October–December.
Will the April 2027 price cap be lower than January?
Nobody has published a forecast for it. The April level will be set from wholesale prices over roughly November 2026 to February 2027, so a mild winter with easing gas markets would help. Working the other way, electricity is only VAT-free until 31 March 2027; if that is not extended, 5% VAT returns to electricity on 1 April.
Does VAT come back on electricity in April 2027?
The zero rate the Government introduced runs from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027. Unless it is extended, domestic electricity carries 5% VAT again from 1 April 2027. Gas has kept 5% VAT throughout.
What is the price cap from October 2026?
£1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit, confirmed by Ofgem on 26 August 2026: a £60 (4%) rise on the £1,663 cap in force until 30 September. Electricity is 26.32p per kWh with a 54.83p daily charge; gas is 7.97p per kWh with 29.68p a day.
Does the price cap apply to fixed tariffs?
No. It caps the unit rates and standing charges on standard variable and other default tariffs. A fixed deal keeps its own prices until it ends; Ofgem estimates around 35% of households are on fixes.
Should I fix now or wait to see what 2027 brings?
A fixed deal priced below the £1,723 October cap at your usage also beats the £1,872 January forecast, so if you can find one with a small or no exit fee it removes the winter risk. If the best fix is above the cap, staying variable and re-checking after each announcement is reasonable. Compare on your postcode, meter and usage rather than the national headline.
What does the cap actually limit?
The maximum unit rate (p/kWh) and daily standing charge for default tariffs, set separately by region, payment method and meter type. It is not a cap on your total bill: use more energy and you pay more.
Trust, methodology and sources
Page ownership
- Written by
- EnergyPlus Editorial Team
- Reviewed by
- Energy Specialist
- Last updated
- 11 September 2026
How this page is kept honest
- Confirmed caps are quoted as Ofgem publishes them, with the announcement date.
- Forecasts are attributed and dated and we say plainly when no forecast exists, rather than inventing a range.
- We update after each Ofgem announcement — late November, late February, late May and late August.
- Nothing here is financial advice; the comparison uses your own details.
Ready to check your home energy options?
If you’re tracking UK energy price cap forecasts for 2027, the most helpful step is to compare what you can switch to today. Submit your details and we’ll help you review available tariffs for your postcode.
EnergyPlus.co.uk is a comparison service. Availability and prices depend on location, meter type and market conditions.
In a hurry?
- Use your postcode for accurate regional pricing
- Have your latest bill ready if possible
- Check your tariff end date to avoid rolling onto SVT
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