Will the Ofgem price cap drop in April 2026?

If the price cap drops in April 2026, will your bill drop too?

Possibly—but it depends on what tariff you’re on. The Ofgem price cap limits the unit rates and standing charges for households on standard variable tariffs (SVTs) and other default tariffs. If you’re on a fixed tariff, your prices usually stay the same until the fix ends.

Because April 2026 is still some way off, no one can guarantee whether the cap will go up or down. What you can do is compare fixed deals available now, see the exit fees and end dates, and choose what suits your household risk level.

Scenario A: Wholesale prices trend down

If gas and electricity wholesale prices are lower over the cap’s observation period, the cap can fall. This is one of the biggest drivers of cap changes.

Scenario B: Non-wholesale costs rise

Even if wholesale prices ease, the cap may not drop if other elements rise (for example, network charges, policy costs, or supplier operating costs).

Scenario C: Market volatility returns

A cold winter, supply disruption, or global price shocks can push wholesale costs up quickly—potentially increasing the cap rather than reducing it.

What the cap applies to

• Standard variable tariffs (SVTs) and default tariffs
• Prepayment meters (with their own cap structure)
• Both gas and electricity (rates and standing charges)

What the cap doesn’t do

• It doesn’t cap your total bill (usage still matters)
• It doesn’t mean fixed tariffs must match the cap
• It doesn’t guarantee the cheapest deal for your home

Wholesale gas and electricity prices

This is typically the biggest driver. A sustained downward trend is supportive of a lower cap. But even short spikes—particularly in gas—can flow through to cap calculations.

UK and global weather patterns

Colder winters increase demand and can tighten supply. Milder conditions can reduce demand and ease pricing—though outcomes depend on storage levels and imports.

Network and standing charge movements

Even when unit rates fall, standing charges can move due to network costs and other regulated elements. That’s why comparing total estimated costs is important.

Policy decisions and cap methodology

Government and regulator decisions can change how costs are recovered or how the cap is calculated. This can affect April 2026 even if wholesale prices are steady.

Common mistakes that cost households money

• Waiting for “the perfect time” and missing a good fix
• Comparing only the headline “average bill” rather than unit rates and standing charges
• Not checking if a deal has exit fees
• Ignoring payment method differences (Direct Debit vs prepay)

When fixing can make sense

• You want predictable monthly costs
• You’re worried about winter price spikes
• You prefer budgeting certainty over potential future drops
• You’ve found a fix with fair exit fees and terms

England

Regional electricity distribution areas can change standing charges. Always compare using your postcode rather than national headlines.

Scotland

Some regions can see different network costs. Comparing tariffs by estimated annual cost for your usage gives the clearest picture.

Wales

As elsewhere, your bill depends on usage and regional charges. Small differences in standing charges add up over the year.

“Clear comparison and the results made it easy to understand what I’d pay, not just the headline rates.”

— Priya, Manchester

“I didn’t realise the cap only affects default tariffs. Comparing fixed deals helped me decide what was right for my budget.”

— Tom, Cardiff

“Fast form, simple steps, and no confusing jargon. I could see exit fees and contract lengths in one place.”

— Alison, Glasgow